TEL AVIV, Israel: The dramatic downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad presents possible danger, and an opening, for neighboring Israel.
After fighting wars on multiple fronts for months, Israel is now concerned that unrest in Syria could spill over into its territory. Israel also views the end of the Assad regime as a chance to disrupt Iran’s ability to smuggle weapons through Syria to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
The Israeli military over the weekend began seizing control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syria created as part of a 1974 ceasefire between the countries. It said the move was temporary and meant to secure its border.
But the incursion sparked condemnation, with critics accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire and possibly exploiting the chaos in Syria for a land grab. Israel still controls the Golan Heights that it captured from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed — a move not recognized by most of the international community.
Here’s a look at recent developments along the Syrian frontier.
Where are the Israeli troops?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israeli forces were moving to control a roughly 400-square-kilometer (155-square-mile) demilitarized buffer zone in Syrian territory. The buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights was created by the UN after the 1973 Mideast war. A UN force of about 1,100 troops has patrolled the area since then.
On a visit Sunday to a Golan Heights hilltop overlooking Syria, Netanyahu said that because Syrian troops had abandoned their positions, Israel’s move into the buffer zone was necessary as a “temporary defensive position.”
“The peacekeepers at (the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, or UNDOF) informed the Israeli counterparts that these actions would constitute a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement, that there should be no military forces or activities in the area of separation,” said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric. He added that the buffer zone was calm and UNDOF peacekeepers remained in their position. The Security Council is scheduled to meet for special consultations called by Russia to discuss the buffer zone issue.
The rebels who ousted Assad and now control much of Syria are led by a former senior Al-Qaeda militant, although he severed ties with the extremist group years ago and has promised representative government and religious tolerance.
On Monday evening, Netanyahu said Assad’s fall is the “direct result of the heavy blows we landed on Hamas, on Hezbollah and on Iran.” He added that Israel would occupy the summit of Mount Hermon, which is within the buffer zone on the Syria-Lebanon border, and at 2,814 meters (9,232 feet) is the highest peak in the eastern Mediterranean coast.
Israel has sent both ground and air troops into the buffer zone, including on the Syrian side of snow-dusted Mount Hermon, which is divided between the Golan Heights, Lebanon, and Syria. Only the United States recognizes Israel’s control of the Golan Heights.
How long will Israeli troops be in the buffer zone?
Israeli troops began moving into the buffer zone Saturday. Also on Saturday, armed men attacked UN forces near the border with Israel, according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.
“(The Israeli military) took targeted and temporary control of certain areas near the border to prevent an Oct. 7 scenario from Syria,” Saar said, referring to Hamas’ surprise 2023 attack into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
Many in the region condemned the move. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry accused Israel of “exploiting the power vacuum … to occupy more Syrian territories and create a fait accompli in violation of international law.”
This isn’t the first time Israel has entered the buffer zone this year.
An Associated Press report last month examining satellite imagery found that Israel had been working on a construction project, possibly a new road, along the border with Syria from as early as July, and had in some cases entered the buffer zone during construction. Following the AP report, UN forces warned that the Israeli military has committed “severe violations” of its ceasefire deal with Syria.
Is Israel invading Syria?
Israeli political and military leaders have stressed that the seizure of the buffer zone is temporary and not a prelude to entering other parts of Syrian territory.
“The plan at the moment is that this is a temporary step to make sure stability is kept in the border, making sure the buffer zone is kept, and the UN forces can stay,” said a military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with military guidelines.
The official noted that in 2014, UN peacekeepers fled the buffer zone after Al-Qaeda-linked Syrian rebels attacked their encampments. After armed men attacked UN forces over the weekend, Israel wanted to ensure the situation did not repeat itself, the official said.
Israel isn’t currently trying to change the border or prepare for an invasion into Syria, said Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think-tank.
“Right now, it’s a tactical operation, not a long-term strategy, in response to the dynamic situation in Syria,” she said. With the collapse of the Syrian army, Israel wants to protect its borders until the situation stabilizes, she said.
What are Israel’s interests?
Israel says its immediate goal is to prevent the instability in Syria from spreading into the border region.
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday laid out Israel’s plans for the border area. He said that after completing the takeover of the buffer zone, Israel would create a “security zone” beyond it by destroying heavy artillery across Syria and preventing Iran from smuggling weapons through Syria into Lebanon.
Foreign Minister Saar said Monday that Israel has struck multiple sites holding chemical weapons and long-range missiles to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors. Saar did not say when the strikes occurred. Analysts said Israel is likely to continue carrying out strikes against targets across Syria.
Israel is planning outreach to Syria’s Druze population, a close-knit religious minority that also lives in Israel, Jordan and Lebanon and has maintained some ties across borders.
Israel is also trying to open lines of communication with Syrian rebel groups, to help ensure Iranian-backed factions don’t reclaim any territory, according to Valensi.
For many years, Israel quietly provided food, medicine, clothing and other assistance to war-ravaged southern Syria through “Operation Good Neighbor,” which ended in 2018. More than 4,000 wounded and sick Syrians received medical treatment in Israel or in Israeli field hospitals, and those non-diplomatic connections could now prove crucial.
